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According to the research report released by SDIC Securities on December 8, if we want to treat this wave of "new year's market" with "innovation", it is necessary for the US dollar index to clearly turn from strong to weak and the fiscal expenditure to enter a clear expansion cycle. The pricing of risk preference turning to fundamentals may have to be further confirmed in the second quarter of next year (strong dollar turning to weak dollar+stimulus policy effectively reversing domestic demand). Looking back at history, after M1 rebounded from the bottom for two consecutive months, the market sector represented by consumption and pro-cyclical sectors will start pricing around fundamentals, which also means that if the growth rate of M1 continues to rebound in November, this extreme differentiation pricing model of large and small markets is expected to be gradually reversed.Micro-disk stocks hit a new high. When will the market style return to the fundamentals after the significant differentiation of large and small disks?Micro-disk stocks continued their strong performance this year. Since September 24th, the index of micro-disk stocks has risen by 61.4%, while only one of the 402 stocks in the sector has fallen, with an average increase of 44.03%, which greatly outperformed the indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50. The cumulative increase of 19 stocks including Renzhi (002629.SZ), Shandong Huapeng (603021.SH), Xingtu Xinke (688081.SH) and Lianxiang (603272.SH) exceeded 80%.

In this context, blue-chip stocks maintained their performance resilience. In the third quarter, the single-quarter growth rate of large-cap net profit represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increased significantly, with an increase of 8.75%. The performance of small and medium-sized stocks represented by CSI 500 and CSI 1000 dropped significantly, with growth rates of -14.7% and -9.4% in the third quarter respectively. In terms of industrial chain style, finance has been greatly restored, consumption has remained resilient, growth has continued to be under pressure, and the cycle growth rate has turned negative.On December 9th, Wonder Microdisk Index continued to hit a record high, closing at 359,303.64 points, with a cumulative increase of 25.11% during the year. The fund's heavy position index rose by 7.63% during the year, and the underperformed microdisk index was nearly 18 percentage points.It is difficult for investors who focus on fundamentals to exert their fists and feet in this round of market, and investors who chase small-cap stocks with hot topics make Public Offering of Fund products far behind.

When will the market style switch?Compared with small and medium-sized stocks, large-cap stocks have always been known for their stable operating performance and higher dividends. According to the analysis and research report of Guotai Junan's third quarterly report, the performance of all A-shares declined in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, the net profit growth rate of all A-share non-financial and non-petroleum and petrochemical listed companies (hereinafter referred to as "all A-shares and two non-shares") was -10.8% year-on-year, which was further enlarged compared with the second quarter of 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -8.0%, and negative growth for seven consecutive quarters. In terms of revenue, the cumulative growth rate of all A companies in the third quarter of 2024 was -1.6%, and it was -0.7% in the second quarter of 2024, with an enlarged decline.From 2024 to the end of the year, with the gradual development of the New Year's market, how will the market style be interpreted? Will there be a switch between large and small disks?